Android Tablets Prediction - Android Tablets to surpass iPad

Earlier last year, I predicted that Android will surpass iPhone in sales volume.  The prediction was proven correct.  

(http://nextgenapp.blogspot.com/2010/08/wow-android-prediction-update-my.html, http://nextgenapp.blogspot.com/2010/06/android-prediction.html)

Now, I want to put forward another prediction.  Android tablets will surpass iPad sales just like Android phones surpassed iphone sales.  It may take a year or two, but it will eventually happen.

The reason is simple.  The combined innovation of multiple players will eventually overtake one single company.  As long as Apple's iOS remains a closed system, the result will be inevitable.  The history will likely repeat itself.

When I gave the prediction last year about Android will surpass iPhone, I did not think it was a difficult prediction to make.  But many many people were very skeptical about that prediction.  With the Android's success, I have a higher confidence level about my prediction this time and I certainly think there will be less skepticism about my prediction this time around.  

Let's see how things play out.

Android Prediction Update - AdMob predicts more Android than iPhone by end of this year

Admob's prediction is a lot more aggressive than my prediction.  They predict more Android users than iPhone users by end of 2010.
http://venturebeat.com/2010/07/12/mobilebeat-android-users-will-surpass-iphone-users-by-end-of-2010/

Android Prediction Update - rumor, Verizon to have iPhone next year

When I made a prediction, I did put in a condition.  If Apple do let other carriers to carry iPhone, it may change my prediction.

Android Prediction Update - 1.7m iPhone4 in 3 days, 3m iPhone4 in 3 weeks

Although news said that 1.7m iPhone4 sold in 3 days and 3m iPhone4 sold in 3 weeks, I still believe Android will eventually be able to outsell iPhone within a year, unless iPhone is open to other carriers.

Android Prediction

The tipping point of Android and iPhone is coming very soon.

When I say tipping point, I mean when Android will outsell iPhone (not the total devices in the market, but the number of devices sold in that quarter) in one quarter in US.  This tipping point should come very quickly barring Apple pulling something drastic (like opening up iPhone to carriers other than AT&T)

Since early 2009, I have believed that Android will eventually surpass iPhone.  That belief has not changed.

The combined innovation of multiple players will eventually overtake one single company.  As long as Apple's iPhone remain a closed system, the result will be inevitable.  The history will likely repeat itself.

Let's look at the PDA market in the past.  At the time that Palm has 90% market share, I believed that Windows Mobile (at the time called PocketPC) will eventually overtake Palm.  It may take a long while, and it did take several years.  But Microsoft eventually was able to overtake Palm in PDA area.

However, I cannot say that my belief at that time is correct, at that time, I based my belief on gut feeling alone.  However, looking back, it appears that several signs were already present at that time that partially foretell such outcome.

It seems that when a new thing is introduced to consumers, it must be very simple to use for it to catch on.  Palm was a master of that.  However, as time goes on, people demanded more choices, options, and functionalities.  aThat is where the combined industry ecosystem comes in that can overtake a single company.  In another word, smart phone market would have been as vibrant if it wasn't for Apple's iPhone.  iPhone is a superb devices to convert users to smart phone users, but it also opens the door for the users to accept other smart phones.  And that is where Android can excel eventually.

Apple should not limit the language used by developers

Many people were pretty upset about Apple's decision two weeks ago to ban users from using other programming language to develop iPhone app. All I can say is that I did not remember Microsoft banning developers from using other languages to develop on Windows. Apple seems to be worse than Microsoft in this case.

iPhone, Android, and Palm Pre units sold

Here are a few items found from the Internet about how many units was sold for each of the 3 phones.

Stat as of 2009/06/08

	Number of units	Number of apps
iPhone	40million (June 2009, before new iphone launches. It will surely increases after new iPhone launches.) 1st generation: 146k sold in first weekend 3g version: 1m sold in first weekend	50000 (June 2009)
Android	1m g1 sold on t-mobile in Mar or Apr 09 according to one blog (approximately 5 or 6 months after launch). According to another blog, 1m g1 is sold in 71 days (faster than 1st generation iphone)
Palm pre	Estimate 50k sold in first weekend (June 8, 2009)	n/a

Source: Iphone and Palm Pre figures: MG Siegler http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/06/08/40-million-iphones-and-ipod-touches-and-50000-apps/

Source: android data:

http://www.googleandblog.com/android-phones-million-sold-faster-than-iphone/3564/

http://www.androidcentral.com/t-mobile-g1-hits-million-units-sold